Research News: Changing Demographic Trends in Guelph & Wellington

Research Highlights

• The population of Guelph and Wellington continues to age. People aged 50+ represent 31% of the population, with a higher proportion of seniors living in Wellington County than in the City of Guelph^**.
• Guelph and Wellington is becoming increasingly diverse, albeit at a slower rate than the province.
• The number of Aboriginal people living in Guelph and Wellington has nearly doubled over the past 5 years, but continues to represent less than 1% of the population.
• Unemployment in Guelph in 2006 was at its lowest point since 1987 and was 1.4% lower than the provincial average.

Population Change

The population of Guelph and Wellington grew by 7% between 2001 and 2006, faster than the provincial growth rate of 6.6% and the national average of 5.4%. Current population projections anticipate the City and County will grow to 258,935 people by 2021¹. However, the provincial Places to Grow legislation is likely to inflate that number, and the City of Guelph is currently working on new population projections that will reflect its impact.

As anticipated, the population of Guelph and Wellington continues to age. In addition, paralleling national trends, the proportion of people aged 0 to 19 is in decline. However, the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health Unit is projecting a higher birth rate in the coming years due to an increase in the 25 to 34 year age cohort².

Diversity

Following national and provincial trends, the population of Guelph and Wellington is becoming increasingly diverse. The foreign-born make up 17% of Guelph and Wellington’s population, with the majority residing in the City of Guelph. This is significantly lower than the provincial average of 28%, which is highly concentrated in the major urban centres of Toronto, Hamilton and Windsor.

The population of Guelph and Wellington is primarily English-speaking. Only 1% of the population reports having French as a first language, while 16% of residents have a mother-tongue other than English or French. In the City of Guelph, Italian, Chinese and Hungarian are the most prevalent languages spoken at home after English.³

Income

Economically, Guelph and Wellington is thriving. This community is performing better than the provincial averages on all economic indicators. According to Census data, Guelph and Wellington’s employment and participation rates are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower, than provincial averages.

Average incomes in Guelph and Wellington are higher than the provincial average. That being said, the gap between the highest income group and the lowest is widening. In 2001, the last year for which information is available, 7.3% of people in Guelph and 6.1% in Wellington County are living below the poverty line. A person in Guelph working full-time, full year at the minimum wage rate would be living under the poverty line.

Those most at risk of poverty in this community are single-parent families, new Canadians, people with low education levels, and seniors.

** Unless stated otherwise, the information contained in this report is sourced from 2006 Statistics Canada Census data.

1. Watson and Associates Ltd. (2003). City of Guelph Household Population Projections 2001-2027. Mississauga, Ontario.
2. Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health (2007). Retrieved October 2, 2007 from http://www.wdghu.org/CMSPDF/community_report_may2.pdf.
3. Statistics Canada (2001). Retrieved from http://www.guelph.ca/business.cfm?itemid=46451&smocid=1859.

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